Beat Inflation with These
“Fabulous Five” Stocks
And, enjoy healthy yields—
to help you stay ahead
Beat Inflation with These “Fabulous Five” Stocks
And, enjoy healthy yields—to help you stay ahead
Inflation—especially core inflation—largely has Moreover, Americans will increasingly face
been muted by technical improvements and the (alongside all of humanity) the ravages of resource increasing cost efficiencies of information tech- scarcity, which will inevitably and inexorably raise nologies (IT) that offset the impact of rising prices costs of every basic necessity, from food and fuel in other arenas. But eventually, years of quantitative to transportation and health care. Wise investors easing, both by U.S. and foreign governments, will should therefore always hold in their portfolios some core stocks to offset their ever-rising costs, preferably of companies that over time have proven their ability and commitment to steadily increase dividends, distributions or other payouts—while But the apparent slog ahead should not impede continuing to grow the businesses on which they and long-term returns to Novartis shareholders. Quite their shareholders rely for those pay raises. In this the opposite. While the stock dipped in the summer, environment, bonds remain decidedly unhelpful. it again rose to new highs in September. The markets Actually, one must turn back to the 1950s to find cheered the company’s mid term guidance, and look another modern era when it was so much easier to forward to changes to be wrought under the new get nice income from stocks than bonds. At present, chairman—despite Vasella’s history of leading revo- the relative value, yields and payouts of equities look lutionary growth.
extraordinary when compared to fixed income. Be-low we suggest five hearty investments to help keep Sales grew 3 percent in the second quarter of your wealth and income rising, and to stave off the ill 2013, to $14.5 billion, despite patent expirations, and effects of inflation and rising prices.
core operating income rose 2 percent. Free cash flow for the second quarter alone remained high at nearly Novartis (NVS)
Great dividends are also available currently from That cash flow can certainly cover future divi-
the drug industry, and a favorite in that sector dends, and says nothing about the continuing ad- is Novartis (NVS), which has turned out one of the
vancement of Novartis innovation and productivity, very few truly successful drugs in the past decade to including 17 new drug approvals in 2012—such successfully fight a moderately rare form of cancer. as U.S. and EU approvals for Afinitor for advanced Good growth should accompany its current yield of breast cancer; an EU approval for Jakavi for myelofi- brosis and a U.S. nod for Dailies Total1. The company will continue growing despite the As well as a good Committee for Medicinal retirement of Daniel Vasella, a medical doctor who Products for Human Use opinion for Bexsero, a for a decade as its chief executive and chairman, built breakthrough meningococcal serogroup B vaccine, Novartis into a huge growth engine after the 1996 received in the fourth quarter. Moreover, recent No- merger of two flagging Swiss drug companies, Ci- vartis innovations previously placed on the market still have long runs ahead of them. MS, the debil-itating and often fatal neurological disease, affects Vasella led Novartis into thriving trades in every- some 2.5 million people worldwide and the growing thing from the first oral drug for multiple sclerosis market for Novartis’ genelia MS drug is expected to and mass-market Diovan blood pressure pills, to vaccines, Alcon eyecare products and generic medi-cations to highly focused breast cancer and leukemia Novartis is a strong company with a terrific future, drugs. Jorg Reinhardt, Vasella’s one-time right hand and plenty of firepower to continue funding—and man and a Ph.D. in pharmaceutical science, took raising—its healthy dividend. This is a company to the reigns as chairman in September, after two years buy and to hold for the inflationary years ahead.
heading Bayer’s healthcare division.
Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO)
Novartis now faces a kind of corporate drug withdrawal in the form of the so-called patent cliff, In the energy exploration sector, we recommend
as blood pressure hit Diovan loses its exclusive. The Diamond Offshore (DO).
company predicts flat 2013 sales roughly in line with 2012, and a 2013 mid-to-single digit drop in profits Diamond Offshore owns and operates one of with returns to sales and profit growth expected only the world’s largest fleets of offshore drilling units; including 30 semisubmersibles, 7 jack-ups and one vestments. This, plus the recent debt upgrade, create drillship, with two deepwater semisubmersibles un- financial flexibility and further enhances our invest- der construction scheduled for delivery in 2013 and 2014, respectively and an additional five rigs to come on line later on.
Mandalay Resources
Its equipment lets the company offer equally diverse worldwide services in both the floater (ul- Our natural resource recommendation is Manda-
tra-deepwater, deepwater and mid-water) market lay Resources (MND.T, MNDJF), an emerging
and the non-floater, or jack-up, markets. Often junior miner with a relatively short history but the criticized for its older fleet, Diamond Offshore in makings of a real winner. It’s profitable and it even fact for years had been investing in its fleet, devoting pays a dividend.
nearly $4.2 billion in new capital to that purpose since 2009. Since then, the total number of rigs has While chiefly a silver miner, the Toronto-based declined, as the company retired several jackups and company is not a pure play; Mandalay generates midwater rigs, but focused on ultra-deepwater and revenue (about $160 million in 2012) from several deepwater markets. The company has 23 interna- metals. About half of its revenue in 2013 will come tional semsubmersibles, plus more several additional from silver sales, some 35 percent from gold and the “cold stacked” rigs. Antimony is important as a fire retardant for tra-deep-water market, where demand and day rates fabrics and plastics, and China is its major producer should remain strong for years. and consumer, with control over more than half its global annual trade. As with rare earths, China has Of course, at first glance, Diamond Offshore, as a declared antimony a strategic mineral and in recent deepwater driller, may not look too enticing to most years restricted its export. Chinese economic growth income investors: it’s not exactly in a recession-proof slowed somewhat this year but is again rising. In any business. Its yield, on the surface, does not look very case, the market and demand for antimony should high, either. However, over time the company has remain strong for years. Some new antimony mines consistently paid special quarterly dividends—and are under development, but current global con- said dividends, since mid 2010, have held steady at sumption will exhaust known reserves within a de- 75 cents a share, including the most recent 75 cent cade. Even if additional reserves are discovered, the special dividend in late July. Add them, and the an- price of antimony will rise—perhaps much higher.
Mandalay now has two operating mines (its Cerro Since January 1, 2006, Diamond Offshore has Bayo silver-gold mine in Chile and Costerfield, a paid and declared over $37 per share in total overall high-grade gold-antimony property in southeastern dividends, and going forward, the special dividend Australia). Purchased in 2009 from Coeur d’Alene looks safe, as Loews Corporation owns over half of Mines, Cerro Bayo has since tripled its resource Diamond Offshore—and like all stockholders, reaps base—now nearing 28 million silver-equivalent the special dividend. Thus, with Loews as the major- ounces—as well as its silver-equivalent output, ity owner, we think there is little risk to the special which hit some 3.4 million ounces in 2012 and could top 4.6 million silver-equivalent ounces by 2014, at costs under $11 an ounce. Another positive—compared to its indus- try group—is Diamond Offshore’s balance sheet Costerfield, bought in late 2009 from Western strength: The size of its long-term debt is about Coal, quickly expanded its resource base for antimo- equal to total balance sheet cash and short-term in- ny, a rare metal used for everything from electronics to fire retardant in upholstery fabrics. China pro- Aqua America management maintain this compa- duces roughly 90 percent the world’s antimony. With ny in a relatively aggressive way, emphasizing acqui-Chinese export restrictions, Antimony prices dou- sitions (nearly 200 acquisitions, plus joint growth bled since 2010. It now sells for $13,000 per ton, and ventures in the last decade). The strategy pays off. we expect to see it rise much higher. By 2014, the Yielding 2.5 percent, Aqua America provides inves- company hopes to double the mine’s output, roughly tors with pure refreshment.
50-50 gold and antimony, to yield 80,000 to 100,000 gold-equivalent ounces. The project is self-financ- Sempra Energy (SRE)
ing—and 90 percent of the district remains to be
examined. There’s potential to add to the company’s Our fifth inflation-beating stock is Sempra Ener-
gy. We recommend Sempra Energy (SRE) for
reserves and diversify its revenue base. those seeking to enhance their income and thwart inflation’s advance. Mandalay’s La Quebrada copper-silver project in Northern Chile contains an estimated 459 million Created in 1998 from a merger of two long-es- pounds of copper and 11.2 million ounces of silver. tablished utilities, Sempra was founded to capitalize Production remains several years off, but over time, on utility deregulation and new energy business we expect the market to recognize the property’s competition. It offers above-average growth from unregulated businesses, including liquefied natural gas terminals, pipelines, and storage facilities—but The young company has grown without assuming also from its electric generation and energy-related debt. Unique for a small cap miner, it pays a quar- terly dividend, with a payout of 6 percent of trailing revenues. It recently yielded 3.6 percent. Manage- With nearly 17,000 employees, Sempra Energy’s ment owns about 15 percent of the stock and has companies develop energy infrastructure, operate strong incentives to grow. For now, Mandalay sells utilities, and provide related products and services at a big discount to its peers by a number of metrics. to over 31 million consumers worldwide. Its units include California utilities (San Diego Gas & Electric Aqua America (WTR)
Co. and Southern California Gas Co.) serving more than 20 million consumers as well as Sempra U.S. Income-hungry investors can also benefit might- Gas & Power and Sempra International—develop-
ily from owning the water utility Aqua America
ing and operating critical energy infrastructure and (WTR), which recently declared another increase—
provide gas and electricity services in North America of 9 percent—in its quarterly cash dividend. The increase came on an accelerated schedule, a quarter earlier than usual, and landed considerably higher We like Sempra for its focus on shareholder value than the 6 percent rate at which the dividend grew and meeting customer needs through its own finan- (on a compounded annual basis) for the last 22 cial strength, its operational flexibility and skilled years. Aqua America remains a low-yielding utility, workforce in fast-changing energy markets. But the but we like it, as additional dividend increases are company also invests in its future growth. In De- cember 2012, for example, Sempra Energy applied to federal regulators for construction permits to add Management noted that earnings gains in recent natural gas liquefaction and export facilities to its years lowered the payout ratio to around 50 percent existing Cameron LNG terminal in Hackberry, La. based on current earnings, and as a long-term goal, it seeks a payout ratio of 60 percent to 70 percent. Similarly, a pipeline project in Mexico presages Moreover, Aqua stock recently split, 5-for-4 (25 significant growth at Sempra International. Con- struction on the project is planned to start in 2014, with the expectation that the facility will begin deliv- last year, they should rise again soon. Sempra has, in ering LNG to international markets in 2017.
short, raised its 2013 guidance on earnings per share This company, once something of a commodity by 20 cents and continues to expect $5.50 to $6.00 in trader, exited that business through divestiture. For 2013, it has issued updated guidance expectant of earnings between $4.30 and $4.60 a share, including Moreover, the company may form an MLP for rate increases for both its California utilities, before its midstream and LNG assets, further adding to its Its 2013 revenues should easily exceed $10.5 bil- Despite its recent strong run, Sempra still looks lion and its earnings are smartly advancing, meaning like it can add value. The potential from its lique-that the 63 cent quarterly dividend (increased in faction business—the company’s $6 billion LNG February) and recently yielding nearly 2.9 percent, export terminal at Cameron, Louisiana now on track should continue to grow. That seems to be the con- to add new capabilities—will allow for gains from clusion of the stock market, moreover, where Sem- LNG export growth in Asia, where natural gas prices pra’s shares recently topped $85, having more than tie more closely to oil prices. And the share price does not yet reflect either of those developments, nor possible MLP creation. LNG is a big deal. The This has been a champion performer for income Cameron terminal will have a projected capacity of investors, and continues to promise a great future. 13.5 million tonnes annually, and once operational And where dividends grew nearly 14 percent in the It is a violation of the United States copyright laws for any person or entity to reproduce, copy or use this document, in part or whole, without the express permission of the publisher. All rights are reserved. @2013 LIM As used in this Disclaimer, the words “we”, “us” and “our” refer to any or all of TCI Enterprises LLC (DBA The Complete Investor), Stephen Leeb’s Aggressive Trader LLC (DBA Leeb’s Aggressive Trader), Natural Resources Advisory (DBA Leeb’s Real World Investing), Emerging Advisory LLC (DBA Leeb Income Performance), Leeb & Co. LLC (DBA Leeb’s Million Dollar Portfolio), Fund World LLC (DBA The Cash Cow) Leeb Income Millionare (DBA Leeb Income Millionare) and all of their officers, directors, managing directors, partners, agents and employees.
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